Who Is Winning the Election: Ireland 2025 Results & Polls

When Jim Gavin pulled out of the presidential race five weeks before polling day, many assumed the outcome was already settled. What nobody predicted was the margin: Catherine Connolly didn’t just win—she rewrote Irish electoral history, securing the largest vote share ever recorded in a contested presidential election.

Presidential Winner: Catherine Connolly (63.36%, 914,143 votes) · Runner-up: Heather Humphreys (29.46%, 424,987 votes) · Third Place: Jim Gavin (7.18%) · Election Date: 24 Oct 2025

Who won the Irish election 2025?

Catherine Connolly claimed victory on 24 October 2025, securing 914,143 first-preference votes and 63.36% of the total—a result that surpassed every previous contested presidential election in Irish history. The margin of victory was the largest ever recorded, according to the Fondation Robert Schuman.

Catherine Connolly’s victory

Connolly ran as an independent candidate but collected nominations from seven parties and independents in the Oireachtas, a coalition that reflected her broad appeal across the political spectrum. Her campaign gained particular momentum once Irish Election Projections noted that Sinn Féin’s decision not to field a candidate left roughly 43 points of potential support available for transfer. Analysts estimated 70% of those votes ultimately flowed to Connolly.

Her background as Deputy Speaker of Dáil Éireann from 2010 to 2024 provided gravitas without the baggage of party affiliation, a factor that proved decisive with voters frustrated by the traditional Fine Gael versus Fianna Fáil divide.

Vote shares and counts

Heather Humphreys of Fine Gael finished second with 424,987 first-preference votes (29.46%), according to the Presidential Election Official Results. The quota needed to win was 721,350 votes—Connolly exceeded this threshold with room to spare.

Jim Gavin, despite withdrawing on 5 October 2025, remained on ballot papers and still collected 103,568 votes (7.18%), the Fondation Robert Schuman reported. Under Irish electoral rules, candidates receiving less than 12.5% of votes are not eligible for campaign expense reimbursement—Gavin’s result fell well below that threshold.

Comparison to other candidates

The three-candidate field produced an unusually lopsided result. Connolly’s 63.36% compared to Humphreys’ 29.46% represented a gap of nearly 34 percentage points, far exceeding typical presidential election margins. Michael D. Higgins, who served the maximum two seven-year terms under the Constitution of Ireland, was term-limited and could not seek re-election, according to Wikipedia.

2025 Irish presidential election candidates

The 2025 presidential contest featured three candidates with sharply different political pedigrees and trajectories. Connolly emerged as the unity candidate for anti-Fine Gael and anti-Fianna Fáil voters, while Humphreys carried the government’s official banner and Gavin represented traditional Fianna Fáil establishment politics.

Catherine Connolly

The Galway-based politician spent 14 years as Leas-Cheann Comhairle (Deputy Speaker) of Dáil Éireann, a role that gave her national visibility without partisan attacks. Her independent status, backed by multiple left-wing parties including Irish Election Projections, allowed her to position herself above the government-opposition fray that defined Humphreys and Gavin’s campaigns.

Heather Humphreys

The Fine Gael Minister for Rural Affairs entered the race as the establishment candidate, backed by the party that has dominated Irish politics for much of the past decade. Her campaign struggled with limited paths to victory as Irish Election Projections polling analysis showed structural disadvantages from the outset.

Jim Gavin

The Fianna Fáil nominee withdrew his candidacy on 5 October but remained legally obligated to appear on ballot papers, a peculiarity of Irish electoral law that resulted in over 100,000 votes flowing to a candidate who had publicly abandoned his campaign.

Latest opinion poll Ireland 2025

Pre-election polling for the 2025 contest faced unusual methodological challenges. Multiple pollsters included candidates who were not actively running, and the presence of multiple candidates from single parties complicated vote intention questions, according to Irish Election Projections.

POLITICO Poll of Polls trends

While POLITICO’s aggregate tracking showed tightening in the final weeks, the underlying polls suffered from sample inconsistencies given the three-way race and Gavin’s withdrawal. The discrepancy between pre-election polls and actual results underscores the difficulty of polling Irish presidential elections when candidate configurations shift close to voting day.

Pre-election polling data

Irish Election Projections noted that Connolly’s support increased significantly once Sinn Féin confirmed they would not run a candidate, effectively clearing the left-wing vote field. The party had confirmed their non-candidacy weeks before the election, allowing Connolly’s campaign to consolidate progressive voters who might otherwise have split across multiple options.

Post-election analysis

By-election results offer secondary signals. Recent contests showed Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil averaging 16% combined, with FG/FF unable to mount competitive challenges in newly contested seats, Fondation Robert Schuman reported. This context helps explain why a Fine Gael presidential candidate faced such an uphill battle against an independent.

Irish presidential election turnout 2025

Voter participation reached 45.83% of the electorate, representing 1,656,436 total votes cast, according to Wikipedia. This marked a 1.96 percentage point increase from the previous presidential election in 2018.

Turnout figures

The total electorate stood at 3,614,450 registered voters, with 1,442,698 valid votes counted (39.9% of the electorate). The gap between total votes cast and valid votes—213,738 spoiled ballots—represented a striking 12.9% spoilage rate, the highest in Irish electoral history.

Historical comparisons

Irish presidential elections typically see lower turnout than general elections, but the 2025 figure suggests growing civic engagement around the symbolic office. The 1.96-point increase over 2018 is notable given that the race was widely considered settled before voting day, suggesting either late-breaking interest or successful get-out-the-vote efforts by Connolly’s campaign coalition.

Factors affecting turnout

The record spoilage rate warrants attention. With 213,738 ballots disqualified, roughly one in eight voters submitted invalid votes—a rate far exceeding typical Irish elections. Possible explanations include voter confusion over Gavin’s withdrawn candidacy appearing on ballots, or deliberate protest votes against all candidates.

Irish presidential election 2025 odds

Betting markets leading up to the election reflected the growing consensus that Connolly would win, though the margin surprised even optimistic projections.

Betting odds overview

Pre-election odds had Connolly as the clear favourite, with Humphreys as the distant second choice and Gavin third despite his withdrawal. The shortest odds reportedly available before voting day reflected Business Post analysis showing Connolly’s coalition-building success.

By-election odds and party positioning

Recent by-election betting gave odds of approximately 6-1 for candidates like Ray McAdam, indicating continued fragmentation in traditional party support. The Fondation Robert Schuman noted that neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil appear positioned to win newly contested seats, a dynamic that contextualizes why their presidential nominee performed so poorly.

Pre vs post results shifts

The gap between polling averages and the final result—Connolly exceeded most projections by 10-15 percentage points—suggests either late voter movement toward the frontrunner or systematic polling errors from the methodological issues identified pre-election.

Timeline

Confirmed and unclear

At 16 per cent, neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil have a prayer of winning.

— Shane Coleman, Business Post political analysis

Catherine Connolly has won the election by the largest margin ever recorded in an Irish presidential contest.

— Fondation Robert Schuman

For Ireland’s political establishment, the implications are stark. An independent candidate backed by left-wing parties shattered every expectation, posting numbers that would have seemed impossible for a non-party figure even two years ago. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil must now recalibrate: their combined presidential vote barely exceeded what Connolly achieved alone, suggesting the government’s coalition is significantly weaker than their parliamentary numbers imply.

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Catherine Connolly’s landslide with 63.36% and 914,143 votes reshaped Irish politics, as explored in the Irish presidential election results from Canadaframe.

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